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We’re grounded – 20 + 1 thoughts and predictions on not so mobile no more

July 9th, 2008 | by Klaus Holzapfel |

20 plus 1 thoughts and predictions on not so mobile no moreI am in marketing and not in the transportation business. But almost everything I am coming across these days somehow ties into our increased transportation cost.

Therefore I decided to unclutter my brain and put a random list of trends and developments together. Let’s see how many points you agree with and what you can add to the list.

Here we go:

  1. Local clusters
 of all kind will become increasingly important
    Local communities will become the anchor of people’s lives again. You’ll hang out more with your neighbors so you might want to choose wisely. I just started a local community website at Ning. And I bet Ning is seeing a lot of similar sites popping up pretty already. Talking to you neighbors also keeps your social skills alive since you are doing everything else online;-)
  2. The days of long commutes are over
    Entire neighborhoods where built on the assumption that people would drive over an hour or more to work and back. These communities better attract some business and create some local jobs or their property values will tank.
  3. The government will save a lot of money
    The US government just re-opened the bidding process for air re-fueling tankers. Who needs these if there is nothing to re-fuel with?
  4. We’ll have more time at our hands
    Less driving around means more time off the road. How are we going to spend it? When are we going to listen to our podcasts?
  5. Proximity to Airports will become less relevant
    Bought that house to be close to the airport? Oh well, that doesn’t really matter any longer since we haven’t figured out how to run planes on solar or wind power just yet. The future of air travel looks a bit shaky.
  6. Proximity to all other public transportation becomes more important
    If you have a train, bus stop or even a waterway in front of your door you just won the lottery – especially if you are a business owner;-)
  7. Video Conferencing will finally replace some travelling
    I expected video conferencing to take off after 9/11. But people still chose the long lines and the added hassle over virtual conferences. I believe that the seismic shifts of the belated new millennium will finally lead to the breakthrough of video conferencing. Does every sales presentation still warrant flying across country?
  8. Car manufacturers going belly up
    Not exactly a visionary prediction – I know. Sorry Detroit but I don’t see a way out for the US car manufacturers. What we put on the road right now is a joke. Jelly Bean cars doing 30-33 miles per gallon?
    Europe and Asia are producing cars that get close to 60 miles without the use of hybrid technology. We have nothing to sell.
    I am afraid the Chevy Volt won’t come in time to make things right. Someone else will have to build it.
  9. Local entertainment to replace some long distance travel
    We will look at the bang for the buck. Will we spend it on transportation or entertainment. A WII with the appropriate video game might replace the next skiing trip.
  10. If you travel you will stay longer at one place
    Traditionally we do a few trips per year but all short. I see a lot of day skiing trips in Colorado. People will spend more time at one destination in the future.
  11. 4-day working weeks will be short-term trend
    There is a lot of noise about 4-day working weeks to save the transportation for the 5th day. I believe this is nonsense. People will bring it on for eight hours and kick back the remaining two. Just Ask the government agents who have done this for years. They’ll tell you what’s going on at the “8+ hours”.
  12. Public events only with public transportation
    If the tickets to a rock concert include free public transportation we might still want to go.
  13. Broadband demand will increase
 more than predicted
    I’d rather buy broadband than Gold these days. Demand is only going one way. The increased telecommuting and applications replacing face-to-face meetings will require more broadband capacity. FIOS will be Verizon’s cash cow.
  14. Chile’s farming might take a hit
    A good part of our fresh fruit in the winter is flown in from Chile. Remember the days without Cherries and Strawberries in the winter? They’ll be back.
  15. Arch-Enemies will collaborate
    You think FedEx and UPS will still send two trucks out in 5 years from now? I am waiting for the FedEx guy to bring me a UPS packet. Eventually I won’t have five trash services to pick from either because it just doesn’t make sense that all these trucks breeze through the same neighborhood.
  16. Amtrack is hot – once we got the right trains and tracks
    The airlines are trying everything to keep it together, but they won’t. Trains will start to have passengers again – not just cargo. Someone will bring these high speed trains over from Europe or Japan to make us mobile again.
  17. Truckers are the new cowboys
    Some truckers call themselves cowboys but many of them will actually end up with the same fate as well: People will only remember them from movies.
  18. 30-foot ceilings are not so “cool” any more
    So you were lucky and could afford that 6000 sqft mansion with 30 foot ceilings? Talk to the owners of European castles about their heating costs to get the heads up. The Queen of England might be able to help.
  19. More services available at our doorsteps
    I just had my cars windshield replaced at my driveway. I am waiting for may others businesses to know at my door and provide their services at the spot.
  20. Drive Ins Throughs are dead
    Who walks or bike rids into a drive in through? My daughter did it once;-) Some businesses will are making 60% of their revenue from drive throughs
  21. Bonus: People will come up with some real crazy ideas to save on gas
    Wait and see. We have only seen the tip of the iceberg so far. Hypermiling is just one of the new trends. I’ve seen cars drafting three feet behind trucks. Soon they’ll hook themselves to the car ahead of them.

Bottom line
Thing are finally beginning to shift. I am surprised what a little 100% increase in fuel cost could do to ourselves. This might well be the most dramatic transition in our society in 150 years. The new millennium has finally arrived. Once that upcoming monster recession is over we could actually have some fun with this.

For all social media networkers: People will need help with the upcoming transition. There is lots to do and lots of stuff to fgure out.  I’d think You are in the right line of business;-)

Your thoughts?

  1. 3 Responses to “We’re grounded – 20 + 1 thoughts and predictions on not so mobile no more”

  2. By Rob McNealy on Jul 16, 2008 | Reply

    I think you are right. People do not like change, and rarely do change unless there is a strong catalyst, in this case, financial. I am very curious to see how the American populous manages the rest of the economic collapse.

    Check out:
    http://www.AskAFloorGuy.com
    http://www.StartupStoryRadio.com
    http://www.ContrivedMedia.com

  3. By Change F1 Rules on Jul 20, 2011 | Reply

    The comment on change above has never been apt. Maybe it's the rules that we're having trouble with. Time for change.

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  2. Jul 20, 2008: Bookmarks about Predictions

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